Mohammadbagher Asadi; hosein sadeghi soghdel; Bahram Sahabi; alireza naseri
Abstract
By supplying energy for many activities, electricity is one of the most important drivers of industrial development. But, electricity industry is one of the largest producers of polluting gases due to combustion of fossil fuels. This has raised serious concerns about the externalities of pollutant emissions ...
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By supplying energy for many activities, electricity is one of the most important drivers of industrial development. But, electricity industry is one of the largest producers of polluting gases due to combustion of fossil fuels. This has raised serious concerns about the externalities of pollutant emissions in power generation processes. This paper aims at modeling and estimating the health effects and costs of electricity generation in thermal power plants in Iran based on the Impact Pathway Approach using SimPacts software. Based on our results, the health costs of electricity generation in Iran in year 2014 are more than 110 trillion Rials, which accounts for about 1 percent of GDP in this year. Also, the research results show that combined cycle and gas turbine power plants respectively impose the lowest and highest social health costs per kilowatt-hour of electricity generation. Ultimately, by modifying the fuel mix and only using natural gas as the fuel for power plants, the health costs of electricity generation will be reduced by more than 53 percent.
Mohammadbagher Asadi; hosein sadeghi soghdel; Bahram Sahabi; alireza naseri
Abstract
This paper examines the impacts of fuel price reform on the technology mix of power plants and other outputs of the Iran electricity market. In this regard, Iran electricity market has been simulated by using an agent-based model for a long-term period. Then, as a result of fuel price reform, ...
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This paper examines the impacts of fuel price reform on the technology mix of power plants and other outputs of the Iran electricity market. In this regard, Iran electricity market has been simulated by using an agent-based model for a long-term period. Then, as a result of fuel price reform, the changes in the outputs of the electricity market, including the average price, average efficiency, capacity and technology mix of generation has been studied and analyzed. The results show that, the current situation of technology mix of power plants is far from optimum conditions. Accordingly, the reform of fuel prices may change the returns and incentives of investment in different technologies so that, technology mix of power plants would face major changes, and by increasing share of more efficient power plants like combined cycle power plants, the average efficiency of electricity production increase from current 36% to more than 55%.
Mohsen Khezri; Bahram Sahabi; Kazem Yavari; Hassan Heydari
Volume 15, Issue 57 , July 2015, , Pages 193-228
Abstract
Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem ...
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Given the importance of inflation in Iran economy, scrutiny of inflation determinants is important .according to various studies, evaluation of determinants of inflation using standard VAR model, may lead to wrong conclusions and this is due to omitted variables bias in VAR model. For example, the problem of price puzzle in the empirical literature is one of these results. In this study, for a more accurate assessment of determinants of inflation in Iranian economy and forecasting inflation, instead of using FAVAR model with constant coefficients, we have employed TVP-FAVAR models and inflation has been modeled. In this model, the variables of GDP growth, growth of the monetary base, inflation, exchange rates and interest rates are considered as the main variables, and to estimate the non-observable variables of speculation section return, variables in the overall classification are modeled. Based on the results, the relationship between the variables change over time and conditions prevailing in the economy is effective on the influence of model variables on each other.
Khaled Ahmadzadeh; Kazem Yavari; Abbas Assari Arani; Bahram Sahabi
Volume 12, Issue 47 , January 2013, , Pages 1-20
Abstract
In recent decades and especially in developing countries, the trade of services has faced an increasing trend. The export of services can improve trade balance, economic growth, employment as well as development of merchandise sector. This paper uses a descriptive and analytical approach and intends ...
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In recent decades and especially in developing countries, the trade of services has faced an increasing trend. The export of services can improve trade balance, economic growth, employment as well as development of merchandise sector. This paper uses a descriptive and analytical approach and intends to evaluate performance and factors affecting the total export of services and particularly the export of technical and engineering services in OIC selected countries by applying panel data method.
The results of estimating the performance indicators and comparative advantage of technical and engineering services export indicate that between years 1994 to 2010, Iran's position among these countries has improved. In our analysis, factors such as GDP per capita, real effective exchange rates, inflow of foreign investments, communication infrastructures and also being member of two trade blocs -ECO and D8- have significant and positive effect on the total export of services and also the export of engineering services. Thus, it is necessity for governmental institutions and private sector in Iran to plan and prepare to further develop the export of services.
